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The Toronto Blue Jays are currently 81-59 and in first place in the AL East. They are three games ahead of the Boston Red Sox and four games ahead of the New York Yankees. The Jays and Yankees both have 22 games remaining, while the Red Sox have 21 more to play. The Jays are sitting in a nice position now as they get ready to head into New York for a weekend series against the Yanks.

This is the time of year when there is plenty of scoreboard watching while the games are going on, with everyone trying to keep abreast of divisional races and wild-card standings.  One key factor to remember is that the Blue Jays own the tiebreaker over both the Yankees and Red Sox. If the season ends in a two-way or three-way tie atop the division, the Jays will be crowned champion. There is no game 163 or 164 to determine divisional races anymore.  Head-to head record is the deciding factor now.

So, this weekend in the Bronx will go a long way to determining the divisional race as well as the wild-card seeding. The Jays have Kevin Gausman, Max Scherzer and Chris Bassitt on the mound, while the Yankees have rookie Cam Schlittler, Luis Gil and ace Max Fried on Friday, Saturday and Sunday, respectively.

The starters from both teams are pretty comparable, with the Jays having more experience and the Yankees having more electric stuff. I give the Jays a slight edge.

Both bullpens are struggling. The Jays have the second-worst bullpen ERA since the All-Star break in part because they have the second-highest bullpen walk rate. The Yankees have the third-worst bullpen ERA and 11 blown saves since the break.

Devin Williams, acquired last off-season, was thought to be the closer but his multiple implosions have given opportunities to a number of others. Williams has allowed 12 runs in 11.2 innings pitched since Aug. 1 and his 5.40 ERA is fifth worst among relievers with 40 or more appearances. The Yankees have seven different pitchers with multiple save opportunities, because they’ve had so much failure in the closer’s role. Still, I give the Yankees a slight edge here.

Offensively, the Yankees lead all of baseball in runs scored (741) and they do it with power. They have six different batters with 20 or more homers and will break their franchise record of seven when Giancarlos Stanton (18 home runs) and Anthony Volpe (19 home runs) go deep a few more times. The Yankees lead baseball with 241 home runs while the Jays are ranked 10th, but the two teams are first and second respectively in homers since the All-Star break. The Jays lead all of baseball in runs scored since the break because of a league’s best .865 OPS. I give the Blue Jays a slight edge here.

Every metric there is has the Blue Jays ranked as a better defensive team than the Yankees.  The Jays were baseball’s best defence last year. The metrics aren’t quite as good this year, but they are still above average while the Yankees are rated average at best. The Jays get the nod in this department.

The Jays have the edge in more categories, but the intangibles also matter. The Yankees are very good at home in front of their rowdy fans, and I expect Yankees Stadium to be rocking this weekend. I’m predicting the Blue Jays win two of three games.

Bullpen woes across baseball

The Blue Jays aren’t the only team in baseball with bullpen woes.

The Mets are having trouble with their bridge from their underperforming starters to their closer Edwin Diaz. The Dodgers have had bullpen health and performance issues all season. The Brewers have closer Trevor Megill on the IL with a forearm strain, and they just lost setup man Shelby Miller to an elbow injury. The Astros have lost closer Josh Hader for the rest of the year to a shoulder injury. The Chicago Cubs and Detroit Tigers are ranked 25th and 26th respectively in strikeouts from their bullpens. They don’t get swings and misses.

So, even the best teams in the game are vulnerable after the fifth inning. 

The Padres are the exception as they overfortified their bullpen at the deadline. Even with an injury or two, they have answers at the end of the game.

Judge, Raleigh and the AL MVP race

The American League MVP race is certainly going to be interesting.

Yankees’ outfielder/designated hitter Aaron Judge and Mariners’ catcher Cal Raleigh are leading the way. Judge leads in OPS (1.105 to .930), batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. Raleigh has more homers and RBI. Judge leads in runs scored.  Judge’s OPS + is 203 compared to Raleigh’s 163 OPS+. Judge has a 7.4 bWAR compared to Raleigh’s 5.7 bWAR. Fangraphs WAR has it a bit closer, but Judge (7.8 fWAR) still edges out Raleigh (7.4 fWAR).

Raleigh is one of the best defensive catchers in baseball. He is an excellent pitch framer and can control the running game with his arm. Judge is a good defensive outfielder but is currently only able to be a designated hitter because of a sore elbow.

This is a tough call. Raleigh is having an historic season with the most home runs ever by a catcher. Plus, his performance while dealing with the demands of catching is even more compelling.

Judge, on the other hand, is having the better offensive season and better overall season.  He did miss some games with his elbow injury, which has lowered some of his counting stats, despite having better rates in most areas.

I don’t have a vote for MVP, but if I had a vote, I would select Judge.