Blue Jays need bullpen to go on the attack

Steve Phillips

TSN Baseball Insider

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The Toronto Blue Jays have the best record in the American League as they enter play on Friday. But, like every other contender, they have a flaw or two that could be their Achillies heel in the playoffs.

There are no perfect teams. The hope for every club that makes the playoffs is that their strengths will compensate for their weaknesses, and they will overcome them.

For example, the Yankees’ team defence was poor last year, and they were also bad baserunners. The Yankees were able to outslug and outpitch their weaknesses up until the fifth inning of Game 5 of the World Series. And then it caught up with them.

The Jays’ biggest weakness is their bullpen. It has a 5.40 ERA since the All-Star break, which is ranked 29th in baseball. Toronto’s relief additions at the trade deadline (Seranthony Dominguez and Louis Varland) have struggled as much as the others in the pen. The Jays have blown 22 saves as a team, with Jeff Hoffman leading the way with seven (tied for the second most in baseball).

Looking at the statistics, the big issue for the Jays is the number of walks, which is indicative of pitchers trying to miss bats rather than attacking hitters. It generally means pitchers are nibbling off the corner rather than attacking the zone. It’s often an indicator of a lack of confidence. Sure, on occasion it just means a pitcher is wild because of mechanical issues, but that’s not the case for every pitcher in the bullpen.

This is a bullpen-wide issue for the Jays. The average walks per nine innings for relievers is about three. Brandon Little, the Jays’ most used reliever, has walked 10 in 13.2 innings since the All-Star break. Hoffman has walked eight in 16.1innings; Yariel Rodriguez 10 in 14 innings; Braydon Fisher five in 10.1 innings; and Mason Fluharty has walked eight batters in 13.1 innings.

The trade-deadline acquisitions haven’t been any more aggressive in the strike zone.  Dominguez has walked nine batters in 8.2 innings, while Louis Varland has walked five in 10 innings.

Walks from relievers drive managers crazy, particularly when a pitcher is brought in with runners already on base.

This issue can be fixed. The pitchers need to focus on the process, not the result.

When pitchers get hit, the tendency is to then try and miss bats rather than trust that their stuff is good enough to get hitters out. It takes courage to throw the ball over the plate, but that is the key to pitching. Strike one is critical. If a pitcher gets ahead by throwing the ball over the plate, then he has the ability to throw a similar-looking pitch that starts over the plate and breaks off. That’s how you get hitters to chase, and that is how you miss bats or induce weak contact.

Closer conundrum

To Hoffman’s credit, he has generally come back the next time after a blown save and put up a scoreless inning. Only once has he blown two saves in a row. He has the ability to flush out bad outings and bounce back, which is a great trait for a closer. But blowing seven saves is not.

Hoffman has been prone to giving up homers (12) this season. In fact, among pitchers used exclusively as relievers, he has given up the second-most homers. Only former teammate Chad Green had given up more (14) before his release from the Jays.

Toronto should have added a closer at the trade deadline. Hoffman fits better as a seventh- or eighth-inning guy. The only options now are from withing the organization. That leaves Hoffman as the Jays’ best answer.  

But the Blue Jays will only use three, or possibly four, starting pitchers in the postseason, which leaves two starters out of the mix in the rotation. As it stands now, Shane Bieber, Max Scherzer and Kevin Gausman are the three best options to start. That means that two of Chris Bassitt, Jose Berrios and Eric Lauer can be used as relievers.

Lauer has pitched out of the pen a number of times in his career. Unless a matchup in the playoffs calls for a lefty starter, he likely becomes a reliever in October. That leaves Berrios and Bassitt. I believe Berrios has a more resilient arm and a put-away pitch with his sweeper. I would prefer him as a potential high-leverage option for John Schneider.

The Berrios move to the bullpen doesn’t have to be sold that he is going to be the closer. Just let things evolve naturally. Use Berrios in low-leverage moments to start and grow his responsibility from there. There will be a time where a save situation presents itself and Hoffman isn’t available, giving Schneider a look at Berrios in the role. Then decide from there how to handle it. Plus, having a positive upbeat person like Berrios sitting in the bullpen can influence the thinking and demeanour of the rest of the relievers.

Barger must make an adjustment

Young hitters who are having great seasons often cool off at some point. Addison Barger is an example of that.

He had a great first half of the season with a .261/.317/.506 slash line. But since the All-Star break, he is hitting .231/.273/.403. The league has made an adjustment to Barger, and he is scuffling.

Opponents now realize Barger can do damage to fastballs, so he is getting a steady diet of off-speed stuff and breaking balls. The time has come for Barger to make an adjustment of his own.

At some point, in a certain at-bat, he is going to have to look for a breaking ball and crush it.  Then he will have to do it again, and maybe even a third time. Then the opposition will shift off of the breaking stuff and go back to the fastball, which will play into Barger’s hands because that is his strength.

Pitching and hitting is a cat-and-mouse game. The best hitters figure out what pitchers are trying to do to retire them and counteract that plan. Barger is learning that.