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BMW Championship betting storylines: Fleetwood and Cantlay look to end droughts
The second leg of the PGA Tour’s playoffs tee off on Thursday from Caves Valley for the 2025 BMW Championship. If this week’s playoff event is going to be anything like we saw the in the opening week, we are in for a good one.
By Luke Bellus
The second leg of the PGA Tour’s playoffs tee off on Thursday from Caves Valley for the 2025 BMW Championship.
If this week’s playoff event is going to be anything like we saw the in the opening week, we are in for a good one.
European Justin Rose edged out American J.J. Spaun in a playoff with Rose emerging for his first win since Pebble Beach in 2023.
With the win, Rose jumped into third in points for the European Ryder Cup team and securing his spot on the roster.
Another European Ryder Cup member to secure his spot on the team last week was Tommy Fleetwood after his heartbreaking finish of solo third gave him enough points to qualify.
Fleetwood once again had a chance to end his historic drought on the PGA Tour, holding a lead on the back nine on Sunday. Seeking his first win this side of the pond, Fleetwood watched his lead slip away to finish third.
Let’s take a closer look at Fleetwood’s odds to bounce back this week and highlight a few more names to keep an eye on in this 49-man field.
Lucky Number 162
It has been 161 starts on the PGA Tour, and Fleetwood is still seeking his first win.
Since making his first start on tour, he has six runner-up finishes, six third-place finishes, 29 top fives and 42 top 10s. He has eight wins worldwide, but none on American soil.
“I’m obviously going to be disappointed,” Fleetwood said Sunday after a bogey-par finish left him one shot out of the playoff. “I said last time, there’s a lot of positives to take, as much as I don’t really feel like that right now. I’m just going to look at what I feel like could have done and how close it was. You know, we move on. There’s another week that’s next, and I’ve just got to reflect on today and obviously keep pushing forward and try and put myself in that position again.”
Moving to this week’s BMW Championsihp, Fleetwood will look to build on an impressive resume in the event with a tie for fifth in the event last year and two other finishes inside the top 15.
Fleetwood is +2000 to win the event and is +125 to finish inside the top 10, something he has done in five of his last 10 events.
The Englishman wasn’t in the field the last time this event was held at Caves Valley in 2021, so this will be his first look at the property, but someone else in the field is probably hoping being back at this course will spark some old winning ways.
Cantlay back at BMW looking to secure Ryder Cup spot
According to DataGolf, Patrick Cantlay has less than a 50 per cent chance to make the Ryder Cup team.
According to X, the platform formerly known as Twitter, he’s a lock for the team.
I… lean closer to the DG projection than the idea of him being a lock.
2025 hasn’t exactly been great for Cantlay, missing the cut at three majors and failing to crack the top 35 at any of them for the first time since he was an amatuer in 2012.
Now, even with this being a down season for Cantlay, he finds himself in control of his own path to make the team.
While it’s too late to jump from 15th in points into an automatic spot on the team, another solid showing at Caves Valley could be all he needs to be picked by captain Keegan Bradley.
Cantlay enters his 2021 BMW Championship title defence on the heels of his first top 10 since May, and has enjoyed a lot of success in this event outside of his 2021 win.
The American has six straight finishes inside the top 15 at this event since 2019, despite those taking place at five different courses.
He enters this week looking to snap a winless drought of his own, having not found the winner’s circle since the 2022 BMW Championship.
Cantlay is +2500 to win this week and +150 to finish inside the top 10, something that should secure his spot on the Ryder Cup team if it cashes.
Rory back in action
After skipping the first playoff event of the year, Rory McIlroy will tee it up this week as he gears up for the Tour Championship.
With the PGA Tour moving away from the starting strokes format for East Lake, positioning entering the final week of play is no longer important and allowed McIlroy the flexibility to take the option on last week.
Thursday will be the first time Rory tees it up since quietly tying for seventh at the Open Championship.
Since winning the Masters, McIlroy has played seven times, nabbing four top 10s - with three of them coming in his most recent three starts.
A push for Bethpage
Cantlay isn’t the only guy fighting for a spot on the American Ryder Cup team this week.
Looking at the points, it feels safe to include everyone inside the top nine as a member of the team.
The leaves captain Bradley at 10, Maverick McNealy (11), Andrew Novak (12), Brain Harman (13), Cameron Young (14), Cantlay (15) , Sam Burns (16), Lucas Glover (18), Daniel Berger (19) and Akshay Bhatia (20) fighting for three spots.
If I had to pick right now, I would go with Harman, Young and Cantlay.
But that list of three can change if someone like Daniel Berger can get hot and win the event.
For all of these Americans on the outside looking in, this week means so much more than a lot of other guys in the field.
Again, with no starting strokes at the Tour Championship, motivation and desire to win this week for anyone with a ticket punched to East Lake should be lower than someone listed above.
Other than Cantlay, Sam Burns has been the best of this bunch at the BMW Championship, with a runner-up finish at the event last year and two other top-15 finishes in three other starts.
As for Team Europe, the roster feels pretty set at this point now that Rose has jumped from the outside to an automatic spot. With 11 players almost locks to make the team, it’ll make for an interesting Danish Open this week on the DPWT with the Højgaard brothers in action gunning for the 12th spot.
Nicolai Højgaard sits as the favourite to win the tournament at +1200, with brother Rasmus not far behind at +1400.
Nicolai was on the Ryder Cup team in Rome two years ago, but at the moment, Rasmus is higher on the points list. It should be an interesting few weeks on the DP World Tour as the twins duke it out for the last spot at Bethpage.